Bitcoin Spot Strategy Dashboard

Live · Checkmate · 墨山貓 · 三線合一 · spot only
BTC $— Connecting…

Core Triggers

1. Primary Buy: STH-MVRV —

"Discount window" opens when short-term holders are underwater. Below 1.0 = green; below 0.95 = strong buy zone. Update weekly from the linked chart.
Live STH-MVRV chart →

2. Safety Filter: Funding Rate —

High positive funding = crowded longs. Negative or near-zero = leverage flushed. Above 0.03% 8h = caution.
Auto-fetched. reset to live

3. Timing: Consolidation Shell —

Consecutive 4H bars within ±3% of latest close. Need 30+ bars (~5 days) for clean shell.
Auto-computed. reset to live

4. 三線合一: MA Convergence —

MA5/MA10/MA20 on 4H. Spread <0.5% = tangled. Recent tangle → bull stack = breakout. Recent bull → losing structure = fakeout.
Auto-detected. reset to live

5. Exit Signal: Turtle-Head Snap —

Failed retest of rising trendline after a parabolic rally is often the last clean exit. Manual.
BTC daily chart →

Trigger Confluence

Daily Checklist

STH-MVRV — discount zone (<1.0)?
Funding — neutral or negative?
Shell — 30+ bars sideways on 4H?
三線合一 — what state?
Turtle head — parabolic rally just failed?
Banner — what does it say today?

Secondary Reference Metrics

MVRV Z-Score
Cycle oscillator. <0 = generational buy. >7 = late euphoria.
Open →
Mayer Multiple
Price ÷ 200DMA. <1 = undervalued. >2.4 = frothy.
Open →
Pi Cycle Top
111DMA × 2×350DMA cross historically nails tops.
Open →
Puell Multiple
Miner stress. <0.5 = capitulation. >4 = miner greed.
Open →
Reserve Risk
HODLer conviction vs price. Low + cheap = best buy.
Open →
STH Realized Price
Bull/bear regime line.
Open →
URPD
Cost-basis distribution. Real support/resistance.
Open →
Ahr999 Index
Chinese DCA timing tool. <0.45 = DCA zone.
Open →

Operating Philosophy

Spot only, position size first. 墨山貓: "If bullish, buy spot — spot can drawdown, but it won't go to zero."

三線合一 is the visual filter. Tangled MAs = compressed spring. Bullish breakout with volume = highest-probability entry.

Glance daily, decide weekly, act monthly. React to regime, not candles.

Confluence over single signals. Need ≥2 of 5 triggers aligned before adding or trimming.

Trim, don't exit. Scale out 10-20% per red signal — never market-sell on a single trigger.